08.08.2004
Pugnacious Deutsch Grabs at Castor's Lead
By BRIAN E. CROWLEY Palm Beach Post Political Editor, Palm Beach Post
Peter Deutsch's five minutes were up five minutes ago. He is still talking.
No amount of prodding from Harold Ostrow, the moderator for this candidate event in suburban Delray Beach, which was Thursday, will quiet Deutsch, who is determined to win over these south Palm Beach County Democrats he so desperately needs to win the Aug. 31 U.S. Senate primary.
Nearby sits Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas, patiently waiting for his turn at the microphone. The front-runner, former Education Commissioner Betty Castor, is skipping the event.
It is a scene that says much about the final four weeks of the campaign to win the Democratic nomination in the winner-take-all primary.
Deutsch, a congressman from Broward County, has been grabbing the microphone and holding on to it all year. It has made him the candidate best positioned to slip past Castor in the primary. But some political strategists say his scrappy style will eventually derail his campaign.
He has accused Penelas of being a disloyal Democrat. He has suggested Penelas was receiving illegal campaign contributions, which Penelas denies.
Deutsch has gone after Castor by attacking EMILY's List, a group that endorsed her. EMILY's List backs Democratic women who support abortion, and its political arm has spent $350,000 on television ads for Castor and is expected to spend another $500,000 this week.
Deutsch calls the group sexist and complains that the only way he can get its endorsement is to have "a sex change operation." Deutsch also accuses EMILY's List of illegally colluding with the Castor campaign. The group denies it.
"He is starting to build a case against himself," says Jennifer Duffy, who studies Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
That is one reason why Duffy concludes that Castor is nearly unbeatable. "This is Castor's race to lose," Duffy says.
As for Penelas, Duffy's assessment - one that is shared by other political observers - boils down to a harsh "Penelas is done."
Castor's hold no guarantee
Predicting the outcome of Florida political campaigns is risky. Just two years ago, the common wisdom was that there was no way little-known Tampa lawyer Bill McBride would defeat internationally known Janet Reno in the Democratic primary for governor. Reno, the former U.S. attorney general, lost.
Castor's campaign has tried to build a sense of inevitability around her. They note that she is the front-runner in all public polls, has far more name recognition than her opponents and is the only candidate who has held statewide office.
Her supporters believe that Deutsch and Penelas will divide the South Florida vote - with most of it going to Deutsch - although they say Castor will get a reasonable chunk of that vote. Her campaign expects she will overwhelm her rivals in her Tampa-St. Petersburg home base, get the majority of votes along the rest of the I-4 corridor and do very well in North Florida, especially in and around Tallahassee.
More important, says political consultant Jeff Garcia, who managed Castor's campaign until he was replaced in January by a consultant from EMILY's List, "there is simply no compelling reason to vote against Castor."
Deutsch disagrees. He believes his pugnacious style is just what voters are looking for. If Castor is the restrained statesman on the campaign trail, Deutsch is the self-described political fighter. He says his own campaign polls show him "nearly even" with Castor.
His campaign is counting on strong support from black voters, who may account for more than 20 percent of the primary vote. That vote will be driven, in part, by primary races for U.S. Reps. Alcee Hastings of Miramar and Corrine Brown of Jacksonville. Both are supporting Deutsch, and their supporters are likely to vote for Deutsch.
The Deutsch campaign even believes it will be helped by Palm Beach County's hotly contested sheriff race. A large turnout, Deutsch is convinced, would mean more votes for him, particularly in the heavily Jewish south county condos, where the chance to elect a Jewish senator could have a strong emotional pull.
But that hope was dampened when the Jewish Journal, which is circulated throughout South Florida, decided to endorse Castor. The paper, which applauded Castor's work on Jewish issues, said in a July 27 editorial: "Many Jews could be inclined to vote for Deutsch as the only Jew in the race. This behavior is un-American, un-Jewish and un-democratic. It is our obligation to vote for the best candidate, notwithstanding his or her religion."
Money growing factor
Penelas has been struggling since he started his campaign last year. Polls suggest he remains a distant third. Many Democratic primary voters remain angry with Penelas, convinced that he did little to help former Vice President Al Gore in the 2000 election.
Throughout his campaign, Penelas has insisted that he did all he could to help Gore. And Democratic U.S. Sens. Bob Graham and Bill Nelson defended Penelas after Gore issued a statement in June calling Penelas "treacherous and dishonest."
Gore went on to call Deutsch a "good friend" and praised Deutsch's effort to help Gore during the 2000 election. Deutsch also has won praise from filmmaker Michael Moore, who described Deutsch as a "man of courage" for fighting Republicans during the 2000 presidential election recount.
Money is the key to the final weeks of the campaign. As of June 30, the last available report, Deutsch had $4 million, Castor $2 million and Penelas $1.4 million. Campaign media buyers say a saturation television buy costs a campaign at least $1 million a week.
It would appear that Deutsch has a huge advantage when it comes to cash. But Castor's campaign is counting on her name recognition and the money EMILY's List is spending to make up the deficit.
"I'm not dismissing Peter Deutsch's chances to win the nomination, but it won't be easy for him," the Cook Political Report's
Duffy says. "Castor is going to have to work for it. And in Florida anything can happen."
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